The following report suggests that by 2014, the majority of students will be taking courses fully online rather than on campus
Ambient Insight Research (2009) US Self-paced e-Learning Market Monroe WA: Ambient Insight Research
Nagel, D. (2009) Most College Students To Take Classes Online by 2014 Campus Technology, October 28
This research report, announced in Campus Technology, October 28, is very significant for e-learning in higher education, and indeed for higher education in general, if accurate (and it seems to have been a well conducted study, taking into account the impact of the recession).
The Ambient Insight report provides the following figures for the USA
2009: 27.04 million students in higher education programs in total
1.25 million students in higher education programs take all of their classes online (4.6%)
10.65 million take some of their classes online (39%) – this probably includes blended and hybrid classes.
15.14 million take all of their courses in physical classrooms (54%)
2014 27.34 million students in higher education programs in total (an increase of 2% over 5 years)
3.55 million students in higher education programs take all of their classes online (12.8%)
18.65 million will take some of their classes online (68.2%)
5.14 million students will take all of their courses in a physical classroom (19%)
Note that the report here seems to be equating e-learning with fully online (i.e. distance education) courses.
You are strongly recommended to read both the Campus Technology article and the extensive summary from Ambient Insight Research available for free downloading (if you want the full report, it costs over $4000).
I still need to read the report in full and more carefully. When I do, I’ll add some comments to this posting.