September 20, 2018

Welcome back and some news

Why get on the bus when you can study online? Students lining up at UBC – I won’t be able to get on my regular 99 bus for the first few weeks of the semester because it will be full of students. Then suddenly, they realise they don’t have to be there all day, every day. Some will even discover online learning! Then I will get my bus back.

Welcome back to all those who have been away on vacation and are just returning or have already returned to work. Here’s what I will be working on over the next couple of months.

The 2018 national survey of online learning

The questionnaire returns for the 2018 national survey of online learning and distance education in Canadian universities and colleges are almost complete, with August 30th as the final, final deadline (that’s when we will start to process data tables). Already about 60% of the institutions have responded and we are expecting another ‘rush’ of completions over the next few days. So if your institution has not completed the questionnaire, there is still time, but you will need to hurry. 

We are planning to have the results out by mid-October in time for several conferences. I will be heavily engaged in writing up the results in early September. 

Pockets of innovation

I will be visiting Manitoba the week of September 24-28 to collect some more pockets of innovation in the use of technology for teaching for Contact North. I am still finalising my schedule but if you are in a Manitoba college or university and have an interesting use of technology for teaching, and are willing to share, please let me know as soon as possible, and I will try to fit you into my schedule, which I hope to have finalised by August 31.

The University of Alberta

I am visiting the University of Alberta on August 30 to do two presentations, one to Campus St.-Jean, the francophone campus of the university (yes, there is a substantial francophone community in Alberta/Western Canada), and one for the rest of the U of A faculty. This is in response to my book, Teaching in a Digital Age.

One presentation in the morning at Campus St.-Jean will focus on why university teaching needs to change, based mainly on external factors such as a changing economy, more diverse students, and of course the need for graduates who can successfully navigate and manage a digital world.

The second presentation on the main campus in the afternoon will focus on the how, with suggestions for new teaching methods focused on skills development and the use of technology, and drawing on the Pockets of Information for examples. This presentation will also discuss some of the structural changes needed to support innovation in teaching. 

The web site

Work is about to begin on the re-design of this web site over the next couple of weeks. The main changes will be in appearance, to simplify the layout and to make navigation easier and more intuitive. I have done most of the structural changes, in terms of organisation of the pages and posts. There should not be any major interruption of service while the re-design is being done.

As part of the re-design, I am developing a personal guide to online learning in different countries, based on my experience of working there, and including some of the photos I have taken while travelling. There are short entries so far on Afghanistan, Argentina and Brazil.

Part of this ‘work in progress’ is a province-by-province guide to online learning in Canadian post-secondary institutions.

So far I have just completed British Columbia. If you work in a BC college or university, please take a look – but remember, it is a personal, not an official, guide. If though I have missed something significant about online learning at your institution, please drop me a line (tony.bates@ubc.ca) and I will update the entry. Next up: Alberta.

As well as reporting on breaking news and developments in the world of online learning, I will also be posting on a theme over the next couple of months. I am thinking at the moment of taking a deeper look at the implications of AI and/or blockchain for online learning, but I’m open to other suggestions.

Good luck

So good luck with your teaching and research over 2018-2019 and I hope you are as excited as I am about the likely developments in online learning over the next academic year.

 

Book review: Open and Distance Education in Australia, Europe and the Americas

Qayyum, A. and Zawacki-Richter, O. (eds.) Open and Distance Education in Australia, Europe and the Americas: National Perspectives in a Digital Age Singapore: Springer, US$24+

Why this book?

This book is the first of two volumes aimed at describing how open and distance education (ODE) is evolving to reflect the needs and circumstance of the national higher education systems in various countries. A second goal is to compare how DE is organized and structured in various countries.

What does the book cover?

This first volume covers Australia, Europe and the Americas; the second book (still to come) covers Asia, Africa and the Middle East (including Russia and Turkey).

Who wrote it?

This is a well-edited book, with individual chapters written by experts within each country, following a roughly consistent structure in terms of topics. There is a main chapter for each country, with a useful second opinion from another country expert in terms of a commentary on the main chapter, as follows:

  • Introduction (ODE in a Digital Age): Qayyum and Zawacki-Richter
  • Australia: Colin Latchem (commentary by Som Naidu)
  • Brazil: Fred Litto (commentary by Maria Renata da Cruz Duran and Adnan Qayyum)
  • Canada: Tony Bates (commentary by Terry Anderson)
  • Germany: Ulrich Bernath and Joachim Stöter (commentary by Burkhard Lehmann)
  • United Kingdom: Anne Gaskell (commentary by Alan Tait)
  • United States of America: Michael Beaudoin (commentary by Gary Miller)
  • Conclusions: Qayyum and Zawacki-Richter

What’s in it?

There is some variation between the chapters, reflecting some of the differences between different countries, but most chapters have the following structure:

  • Context: most chapters start with a section that provides the wider context in which ODE operates within a country, either in terms of history or a brief description of the current higher education system as a whole. This sometimes includes how DE is funded (or not funded) by governments.
  • Enrolments and growth: each chapter attempts (heroically in some cases) to estimate just how many distance education students there are within the country and the rate of growth. What is noticeable here is how much variation there is in the accuracy or reliability of these estimates between different countries, partly because of the blurring of definitions between online and blended learning, but partly because in some countries, no-one seems to be counting.
  • Quality assurance/quality control: this describes both the regulatory framework for HE within each country and how that is applied to ODE.
  • Descriptions of specific ODE institutions: these sections describe those specialized institutions that play a major role in ODE within their respective countries.
  • OER and MOOCs. Most chapters discuss the use of open educational resources and MOOCs in their country.
  • The relationship between public and private provision of ODE. This is very useful as the relationship varies considerably between different countries.
  • The future of ODE within each country: this section looks at both challenges and opportunities.

In addition, Qayyum and Zawicki-Richter provide an excellent concluding chapter, that compares the different countries in terms of:

  • size and growth of ODE: ODE enrolments constitute between at least 10-20% of all HE enrolments in Australia, Brazil, Canada and the USA. In the UK and Germany, though, the proportions are likely to be less than 10%;
  • providers of DE: one reason reliable data collection has been difficult is because of the growth in different types of institutions providing DE: specialized ODE providers have in general increased their numbers; more campus-based institutions have become providers of ODE; and private institutions offering ODE have grown. However, this varies considerably from country to country. In the UK, for instance, ODE enrolments have been dropping at the UKOU, but possibly increasing from campus-based providers. In the USA, enrolments from the for-profit ODE providers have been dropping but increasing in the private and public on-campus institutions. What is clear is the impact on ODE enrolments of government policies regarding funding and tuition fees;
  • online vs other forms of DE: again, this differs between countries (and probably even more so in the countries to be covered in the next book). In Australia, Canada, the USA and the UK, ODE is nearly synonymous with online learning; Brazil has ‘leapfrogged’ to mobile learning;
  • the role of government: too complex to summarise here: read the chapter!
  • the function of ODE: ODE appears to play three major functions in HE systems: increasing access; providing greater flexibility to those with access; and ‘abetting in the larger digital transformation of HE’;
  • trends and future challenges: ODE on a macro level is being affected by two factors: the global growth in demand for HE; and the digital revolution. Surprisingly, though, it is less affected by globalization: ‘ODE seems to function mainly, though not wholly, within the nation state’ – except for MOOCs. This chapter has a very good discussion of these issues, particularly the differences between education as a public or private good, and ODE’s role in each.

My comments

The book sets out clearly the extent and importance of ODE in higher education. A careful reading will also indicate the importance of government and institutional policies in supporting or restricting ODE.

This and the second book in this series therefore should be required reading in any post-graduate education program. It should also be required reading by policy analysts in Ministries of Advanced (or Higher) Education. I would also recommend it to Boards of Governors and Provosts/VP Academic in any post-secondary institution. 

I look forward with impatience to reading the second volume, which for me will be even more valuable as I know so little about ODE in many of the countries covered in the second book.

If I have any negative comments, it is about what is not in the book. I think it is a pity that there is no chapter on France, Mexico or Argentina, all of which are very large countries with substantial and uniquely different distance education provision. And of course it is solely about formal post-secondary education. Other books are needed to cover international distance education in the k-12 and corporate sectors.

Also, this book will easily become outdated, given the rapid developments in ODE around the world. It took over two years from the time I was approached to write the chapter and the book’s publication. In this period, the first national survey of online learning in Canadian post-secondary education was published, the results of which had to be hastily accommodated in the last proofs of the book.

Furthermore, the book is an open publication, and is free to download, licensed as open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. However, it is not expensive to buy a hard copy, and I hope if you have an an interest in open and distance education you will make this a standard book on your shelves – after you have read it!

(Note: in an earlier version of this post I incorrectly stated that it could not be downloaded for free. My apologies).

A survey of distance education in Brazil

brazil-2

ABED (2016) 2015 Brazilian Census for Distance Learning: Analytical Report on Distance Learning in Brazil São Paulo, Brazil: Associação Brasileira de Educação a Distância (ABED)

“In God we trust. All others must bring data.”

W. Edwards Deming, quoted in the report.

This is the 8th year that ABED (the Brazilian Association of Distance Education) has surveyed distance learning in Brazil. The 82 page report with another 100 or so pages of tables is available in both English and Portuguese.

Methodology

The report states:

Because institutions have chosen to participate voluntarily, the survey that feeds this document seeks to be comprehensive, but does not intend to establish an exhaustive scenario of distance learning in Brazil. Its analyses, instead, aim to present a picture of market trends in regards to the categories of institutions that work with the distance learning modality, the types of courses offered, the audience they reach, the execution of distance learning activities, their organization and even profitability, necessary investments and challenges inherent to this modality.

The report covers:

  • Institutions accredited by the Brazilian National Education System at all levels: primary, technical, undergraduate and graduate;
  • Formal and informal educational institutions who offer open courses.
  • Institutions operating in corporate learning.
  • Companies that supply distance learning products and services.

Blended courses are defined by Federal Law as having up to 20% of the workload offered in distance learning mode.

ABED contacted 1,145 institutions via email newsletter and an open invitation published on the association’s website, with information about the survey for all establishments operating in distance learning. In total the survey was based on 368 responses, of which 339 were educational institutions, and 69 ‘suppling’ organizations. The 339 educational institutions were made up as follows:

  • public (federal, state and municipal): 92
  • for profit: 114
  • private not-for-profit: 71
  • other: 62

Participating institutions were from 27 states across the whole of Brazil.

Results are broken down by a range of variables, such as type of organization, size, region, etc.

Main findings

This survey had a significantly increased number of participants over previous surveys conducted by ABED and confirms the growth in the number of institutions and companies working in distance learning in 2015:

  • it identified a total of 5,048,000 students in fully distance or blended courses, of whom:
    • 1.1 million were in fully accredited (degree) courses
    • 3.9 million were in corporate or non-corporate open courses
  • just over half (53%) are women and almost half are aged between 31-40
  • 70% of the students are working as well as studying
  • the most common discipline area for both fully online and blended courses is teacher education/training
  • drop-out rates for distance learning courses are higher than for on-site courses, averaging between 26%-50% for fully distance accredited courses.
  • over 50% of the institutions had a centralized management structure for distance learning courses and programs
  • nearly a quarter of the surveyed institutions intend to increase their investments in distance learning in 2016, notably in strengthening blended learning
  • the investments made by non-profit and for-profit private institutions were higher compared to that of public institutions,
  • the majority of distance learning classes have between 31-50 students
  • more than 60% of institutions used open source learning management systems, customized within the institution, of which 43% were cloud-based
  • a good deal of information is provided about private companies offering distance learning services; these private companies provide services particularly to for-profit institutions.

Comment

Professor Fred Litto, the President of ABED, in his introduction states:

One must refer to quantitative data in order to be able to efficiently discuss what distance learning (DL) represents to a nation such as Brazil

This is a statement with which I fully concur, and I have lamented many times the complete lack of national data in Canada. The report is extremely wide-ranging and covers many areas that I have not seen in other national surveys. This no doubt is one of the benefits of doing surveys over a number of years.

Nevertheless I do have some serious concerns about this survey. Without a comparison with the total number of institutions in Brazil, it is difficult to know how representative this survey is. Even within the 1,145 institutions approached for the survey, the response rate was 32%.

Furthermore although there is a definition of blended learning given, I couldn’t find a definition of distance learning. In particular what proportion of the courses were fully online and what correspondence or print-based? There is a lot in the report about how text and audio-visual materials are acquired or developed, and even more about learning management systems, but as an outsider I am left wondering about how much is done online and how much by other methods. This is an important consideration given the different levels of access to the Internet in Brazil. Maybe though it has been covered in earlier reports.

However, given the huge challenge of surveying institutions in a country as large as Brazil (a population of 200 million and an area almost as large as the USA), and the tremendous differences between the regions and between socio-economic groups within regions, the report still provides a fascinating insight into distance learning in Brazil. For instance 15%-25% of the institutions surveyed offered open, ‘MOOC-like’ courses.

As always, you should read the full report yourself and come to your own conclusions, as there are many valuable nuggets buried in the more detail parts of the report, but it is clear that distance and especially blended learning continues to grow in Brazil, and ABED is to be congratulated for wrestling such a monster to the ground.

MIT, learning technologies, and developing countries: lessons in technology transfer

 

This week I spent three days at the MIT LINC (Learning International Networks Consortium) conference in Boston/Cambridge, Massachusetts, with the theme: ‘Realizing the Dream: Education Becoming Available to All. Will the World take Advantage?’.

Because there is so much information that I would like to share, I am dividing this into two posts. This post will focus mainly on the activities reported from around the world, although many of these projects are related to or supported by MIT faculty and staff volunteers.

My second post, MOOCs, MIT and Magic, will focus on what MIT is doing to support technology-enabled learning, mainly at home.

But first some words about the conference.

LINC

The Learning International Networks Consortium (LINC) is an MIT-managed international initiative that began in 2001 and is operated by a growing team of MIT faculty, student and staff volunteers. 

The mission of the LINC project is: With today’s computer and telecommunications technologies, every young person can have a quality education regardless of his or her place of birth or wealth of parents.

LINC was the brain-child of Richard Larson, Professor of Engineering Systems at MIT.

The conference

LINC 2013 was the sixth conference on this theme organized by MIT. It presented a range of topics, technologies and strategies for technology-enabled learning for developing countries, and raised a number of questions about the implementation of learning technologies within developing countries. There were over 300 participants from 49 countries.

The conference was supported by MIT, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, and Fujitsu, enabling many participants from developing countries to be supported in their travel and accommodation.

I report below just a selection of the many sessions around the theme of technology-supported education in or for developing countries, and I apologize that for space reasons, I can’t give a full report on all the sessions.

MOOCs

The conference started with a session on four perspectives on MOOCs, with four speakers making short 20 minute presentations followed by a Q&A panel with the four speakers fielding questions from the audience. I was one of the speakers in this session, and because the session deserves a whole report on its own, I discuss this in more detail in my second post, MOOCs, MIT and Magic.

Sufficient here to say that Sir John Daniel made a point reinforced by speakers in other sections that open and virtual universities have been delivering mass credit-based open learning in developing countries for many decades before MOOCs arrived.

The state of technology-enabled education around the world

The future direction of virtual universities

John Daniel’s point was picked up in this session, when Presidents/Rectors from Tec de Monterrey’s Virtual University in Mexico, the African Virtual University, and the Virtual University of Pakistan described the activities of their institutions. In each case, these projects are reaching very large numbers of students in their own countries or region (around 100,000 each), but each institution has its own sets of challenges as well, especially in reaching the very poor or disadvantaged. However, each of these institutions seems to have a sustainable funding base which promises well for the future.

Bakary Diallo, Rector, African Virtual University

Reaching poor young men in Latin America

Fernando Reimers, the Director of the International Education Policy Program at Harvard, discussed the challenges that youth face in developing countries, particularly adolescent boys and young men, who are turned off by traditional teaching methods that neither fit their learning styles nor prepare them for the skills and knowledge needed in today’s workforce. He pointed out that less than 1% of the poorest 10% in Brazil have Internet access. (Similarly, in Mexico, less than 5% of socio-economic groups C, D and E currently have Internet access, and these three groups constitute almost two-thirds of the population.)

National educational policies and educational reform

Robin Horn discussed a World Bank project, SABER, which stands for A Systems Approach to Better Educational Results. The World Bank has found that often educational reform initiatives fail to gain traction in many countries because they do not align with existing government policies (or put another way, without changing policies, the reforms will not gain traction.) By looking at countries that have successful educational outcomes, and comparing their policies with the policies in other developing countries, it is hoped to identify barriers to educational reform. One example is telecommunications policies. An over-regulated, government controlled access to bandwidths can lead to high Internet costs due to lack of competition, whereas loose or unregulated government policies allow for competition resulting in both increased access and lower Internet costs (Canadian government: please note). Mike Trucano at the World Bank is identifying policies that appear to facilitate or inhibit the application of learning technologies in developing countries and this will be added to SABER in the near future.

The SABER website is packed full of data and analysis and makes fascinating reading for policy aficionados, and certainly my experience is that in all countries (not just developing countries) government policies do have a major influence on innovation and change in education. However, at the same time, ‘top-down’ strategies for increasing the use of learning technologies rarely work (South Korea may be an example of this – see below). In other words, government policies can foster or inhibit educational reform, but the reforms themselves will often have to come from or be supported by those close to the action, the teachers, parents and other stakeholders who will gain most from the changes.

Reaching the poor through educational TV in Brazil

Lúcia Araújo, the CEO of Canal Futura, an educational television network in Brazil, described the extensive use of ‘open source’ educational television and support materials that are being used by teachers throughout Brazil to support their classroom teaching. The programs are freely accessible through public television stations throughout Brazil, and almost 100% of homes in Brazil have access to television, a reminder that in many countries there are still better alternatives than the Internet to reach out to the poor and disadvantaged.

Online universities in Korea and SE Asia

Okwha Lee from Chungbuk National University in South Korea gave an overview of national educational technology developments in South Korea. In terms of sheer scale of online learning South Korea is one of the world’s leaders, with 21 cyber or online universities alone serving over 100,000 Korean students. The South Korean government plays a heavy hand in financing and managing national educational technology initiatives, through KERIS (the Korean Education and Research Information Service), and some of its centralization of data collection and top-down policies have provoked both hunger strikes and a national teachers’ strikes. South Korea has also invested in the ASEAN cyber university, which will include students from Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Mynmar, with plans to extend it later to other ASEAN countries. Initially students will access programs through local e-learning centres.

Using Intranets to lower the cost of online learning in Africa

Cliff Missen, Director of the WiderNet Project and eGranary, gave a fascinating talk based around access to online learning in Africa. The WiderNet Project is a nonprofit organization, based at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, that is dedicated to improving digital communications to all communities and individuals around the world in need of educational resources, knowledge, and training. Cliff Missen’s focus was on the high cost of Internet access for learners in developing countries, pointing out that while mobile phones are widespread in Africa, they operate on very narrow bandwidths. For instance, it costs US$2 to download a typical YouTube video – equivalent to a day’s salary for many Africans. Programs requiring extensive bandwidth, such as video lectures, are therefore prohibitively expensive for most Africans.

The WiderNet solution is the development of local Intranets linked to an extensive local library of open educational resources, the e-Granary project. The eGranary Digital Library — “The Internet in a Box” — is an off-line information store that provides instant access to over 30 million Internet resources to institutions lacking adequate Internet access. Through a process of copying web sites (with permission) and delivering them to partner institutions in developing countries, this digital library delivers instant access to a wide variety of educational resources including video, audio, books, journals, and Web sites. This means setting up local servers and terminals, and even building a small wireless station to cover the surrounding community, but not necessarily linked into the wider Internet. This cuts down substantially on the cost of accessing digital educational resources.

MIT BLOSSOMS: Math and Science Video Lessons for High School Classes

This project has developed over 60 short videos to enrich science and math high school lessons, all freely available to teachers as streaming video and Internet downloads and as DVDs and videotapes. The videos are made in short sections, with stopping points for student and teacher activities built into the videos and supported by the teachers’ guide to each video

What makes this program particularly interesting is that many of the videos have been developed in developing countries, through partnerships between MIT and local schools and teachers, and with local presenters, often from high schools themselves. The videos are of high quality, both in terms of content, which is guaranteed by oversight from MIT professors, and in production quality. There is a strong emphasis in relating science and math to everyday life. For examples see: How Mosquitoes Fly in Rain (made in the USA) and Pythagoras and the Juice Seller (made in Jordan).

As a result, these videos are also being increasingly used by schools in the USA as well as by schools in developing countries. Although some of the programs are made in the native language of the country where they are made, they are also provided with English sub-titles or with also a voice-over version. By developing programs with local teachers, programs can be fully integrated within the national curriculum, and MIT BLOSSOMS team has also shown how each video relates to individual US state curricula.

What MIT is doing in technology-enabled learning

This session focused on MIT’s other activities in technology-enabled learning. I will discuss this in more detail in my second post, MOOCs, MIT and Magic.

Parallel sessions

In addition to the above plenary sessions there were also 72 presentations, each of roughly ten minutes, in parallel sessions. I cannot possibly report on them all, but I will report on two that I found really interesting .

Taylor’s University, a private university in Malaysia, is using the iPad for teaching foundational engineering. The iPads are used to access  iBooks and electronic study materials that have been specially developed by the School of Engineering to support and enhance the students’ learning. Many of the animations and applications were specially developed by final year undergraduate students, working with their professor, Mushtak Al-Atabi. There is a video on YouTube that includes a good demonstration of how the iPad is used.

The second was presented by Ahmed Ibrahim in behalf of a team of researchers from McGill University and the University of British Columbia in Canada. They investgated through interviews “sources of knowledge” for students entering a gateway science course. The found that the most common source of ‘physics’ knowledge for the students is the teacher, followed by the textbook and other sources such as the Internet – what the researchers called testimony. Few students used deduction, induction or experimentation as means to ‘verify’ their knowledge. Thus the students did not feel empowered to be able to generate valid physics knowledge by themselves and  they have to turn to experts for it. In other words students are taught about science, rather than doing science, in high schools. They concluded that instructors need to use instructional methods, and activities that promote deeper learning, more conceptual knowledge construction, and more sophisticated epistemological beliefs. In other words, stay away from information transmission and focus on activities that encourage scientific thinking. Although this is a general finding (and based on a very small sample), it is significant for what I have to say in my next post about MOOCs and teaching science.

Conclusions

This was one of the most interesting conferences I have been to for a long time. It brought together practitioners in using technology-enabled learning, primarily in science, math and engineering, from a wide range of countries. As a result there was a wide range of approaches, from the highly ‘engineering-based’ approach of MIT with a focus on advanced or new technologies such as MOOCs, to practitioners tackling the challenges of lack of access to or the high cost of the Internet in many developing countries.

In particular, Internet access remains a major challenge, even in newly emerging countries with dynamic economies, such as Brazil, Mexico, and India, especially for reaching beyond the relatively wealthy middle classes. Even in economically advanced countries such as Canada, wideband access, needed for video-lecture based MOOCs for instance, is problematic for many disadvantaged groups such as the urban poor or for remote aboriginal reserves.

I was therefore interested to see that non-Internet based technologies such as radio, broadcast television or DVDs are still immensely valuable technologies for reaching the poor and disadvantaged in developing countries, as are Internet-linked local learning centres and/or Intranets.

Lastly, despite nearly 80 years of aid to developing countries, finding technology-enabled solutions to increasing access to education that are long-term and sustainable remains a challenge, especially when the aid is generated and organized from developed countries such as the USA and Canada. Local partnerships, cultural adaptation, use of appropriate, low-cost technologies, teacher education, and institutional and government policy changes are all needed if technology transfer is to work.

However, there is clear evidence from this conference that in many developing or economically emerging countries, there are local individuals and institutions finding local and appropriate ways to use technology to support learning. It will often start in the more affluent schools or in universities, but as the Internet gradually widens its spread, it begins to filter down to lower income groups as well. Indeed, in some areas, such as mobile learning in Africa, there is innovation and development taking place that exceeds anything in the developed world, in terms of originality and spread amongst the poor and disadvantaged.

The MIT group behind LINC has done a great service in providing a means for participants from both developed and developing countries to share experience and knowledge in this area.

 

e-learning retrospective: 2) how good were my predictions?

© 2007 Index Funds Advisors, Inc.

On December 30, 2009, I posted my predictions for 2010:

1. Follow the money:

‘In many countries, 2010 will be a difficult year financially….So we’ll have to cut the universities…..The big unknown is how governments and public post-secondary institutions will respond to lower revenues. Here are some possibilities: more of the same: larger classes, more adjuncts, higher tuition fees, poorer service.’

For evidence that this prediction was correct, see California and the UK. Canada escapes for lack of evidence. I rest my case, m’lud. One for me.

2. E-publishing

‘I predict that 2010 will see e-publishing overtaking traditional printing for academic textbooks….I use the term e-publishing, not e-books, deliberately. I don’t see a long-term future for e-books, at least for study purposes….Kobo and other open standard publishing will eventually win out over Kindle and the Sony Reader.’

This one is less clear cut (as were the predictions). Textbooks are still alive and well, and the Kindle and the Sony Reader have been selling, but not as fast as many predicted and there was evidence from several sources during 2010 that students do not like e-readers for study purposes. The iPad is very successful as an e-book, although of course it has many other functions. It is also open standard regarding online books. Kobo (another open standard e-book provider) has been successful, but if there is a merger between its owner (Indigo) and Barnes and Noble, as the markets predict, then it may be dropped in favour of Barnes and Nobles’ e-book. I would argue that although the prediction of e-publishing overtaking traditional publishing for textbooks is good for the long term, 2010 did not provide enough evidence to firmly conclude that the prediction was right. It’s also too early to predict winners on the e-book front. We’ll take the Scottish court’s verdict of ‘not proven’ on this one, which means we can come back to it at another time.

3. Mobile learning

‘Will mobile learning move from being a fringe or supplementary activity and become the primary delivery medium? If it does, I suspect it will not be in the USA, Canada, Australia or Europe, but in South Africa, an Asian country such as India, or possibly Brazil.’

e-Learning Africa 2010 provided strong evidence that mobile learning is already a very significant delivery medium now in Africa, mainly for non-formal and vocational learning, despite limitations on bandwidth, cost and the fact that most users do not have smart phones. However, mobile learning remains more accessible than learning through Internet-linked personal computers for all except a minority in Africa.

There are still relatively few educational apps in North America and Europe, but they are growing. However, a major limitation is that there are multiple operating standards for mobile phones, which limits their use to proprietal phones. Hopefully, this problem will be removed with the release of HTML 5, which will enable device-independent web browsers. However, it is unlikely that HTML5 web browsers will be available on mobile phones until 2012 at the earliest. At the same time, educational institutions in North America and Europe should be thinking about mobile applications as they begin the design of new courses in 2011. Me lud, I beg the court’s indulgence as I claim the benefit of the doubt on this charge.

4. Convergence through cloud computing

Maybe not in 2010, but perhaps in 2011, we will see the ultimate, all purpose device that will combine a big enough screen/fine enough resolution (maybe in a foldable format), an intuitive user interface, full mobile access, a full range of applications, and still be small enough to carry in your pocket or purse

Well, we’re not there yet, but the iPad, the iPhone and the devices coming from its competitors certainly moved increasingly in this direction during 2010. The problem is that the higher education market still hasn’t got it yet. We are still using tweets and Facebook to support classroom teaching, instead of designing any time, anywhere learning. Nor have we solved the security and student privacy issues around this development. Indeed, expect in 2011 more attempts to ‘lock down’ these non-institutional cloud-based services for students in formal courses as legislators and particularly IT managers move ‘risk management’ higher up the governance agenda. I think the prediction still stands (for 2011) but this won’t necessarily mean a big change in teaching practices.

Brazil: the international leader in e-learning in 2010?

With its GDP growing at an anticipated 8% or more in 2010, and hence resources for continued investment in e-learning, Brazil is on track to becoming the world leader in its use of e-learning. Another country to watch is India, with a vast and growing e-learning industry, the ability and resources to innovate in applications of e-learning, and English as a major language. Increasingly we will see the development of online learning materials, courses and quality open content being outsourced to Indian companies.

I can’t provide any evidence for or against Brazil on the basis of 2010 – I didn’t follo closely enough the Portuguese news on this. Any Brazilian readers out there who can help me on this?

However, there were snippets of information during 2010 that identified India as a major provider of e-learning services, both internally and for export. And if the number of e-mails I get from India offering me e-learning services is anything to go by, at least their marketing is aggressive.

6. Something totally unexpected

Well, the unexpected was that nothing unexpected broke in 2010. I can’t think of any significant, totally new technology, software, or political or institutional initiative that proved to be a game-changer (except maybe the financial context, which was highly predictable). Nothing really took off this year, although (see next posting) online learning continued to expand rapidly.

But help me out here. Have I missed something obvious? What do you think were the significant developments in e-learning in 2010?