May 21, 2013

No. 2 aha moment: God helps those that help themselves

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In a previous post, I listed the seven ‘aha’ moments that have been the most seminal ‘discoveries’ in my researching and working in educational technology. This is the second of seven posts that discuss why I believe these ‘discoveries’ to be important, and their implications specifically for online learning. (The first was: Media are different.)

What was the discovery? (1974 for the first time, then continually reinforced since then)

This stems from my experience of working in developing countries. Ever since I started working in this field, people have argued that the direct importation of  ‘Western’ (educational) technology is the solution to educational problems in developing countries. This is hubris, and just plain wrong. Progress in education in developing countries has to start at home. Western technology can help, but only as long as it is adapted and transformed locally.

More importantly, before technology can be useful for developing countries (or any other for that matter) a number of social, economic, political and technological infrastructures or conditions  need to be in place or extensively developed before ‘new’ educational technologies can be useful. A simple example is an affordable electricity network that reaches most homes and schools. Another is the need for suitable training in teaching. A third is for non-corrupt government so that educational technology purchases are not influenced by bribery from rich countries trying to sell their homegrown technology.

How did this discovery come about?

My first experience in fact was a very positive one. I was working as a consultant in 1974 for UNESCO in Thailand. The aim was to help the Thai government build an educational radio network for the Ministry of Education. I was responsible for assisting with curriculum development and design of the radio programs. It was decided rather late in the day to survey the existing audio-visual equipment in Thai schools at the time – radios, audio recorders, whether or not the schools had electricity in all classrooms, etc. Furthermore, they wanted a census of all 20,000 schools – not a sample – because of strong regional differences. And the whole thing had to be done over a six week period, from design and translation of the print questionnaires, to delivery, completion and collection, data processing, analysis and report writing. I didn’t think this was possible, but my Thai counterpart in the Ministry assured me it was, so long as I could design the questionnaires and the tables for analysis in advance.

With the help of my Thai counterpart, I designed the questionnaires and the ‘shells’ for the tables for analysis. The questionnaires would be delivered with the teachers’ salary payments, and returned when the teachers collected their next salary payment, then transported via the Ministry’s internal mail network back to our office in Bangkok. ‘But how are we going to process and analyse data from 20,000 schools in one week?’, I asked.

I was taken to the Thai National Census Office, where I was introduced to six formidable Thai women, all senior managers in the Census Office. Yes, it would be no problem, they said, after looking at the questionnaire and the sheets of table ‘shells’ I had drawn up for the analysis.

‘How?’, I asked.

‘We have the latest IBM mainframe and punch card equipment’, they said.

Sure enough, on the designated date, they delivered a massive print-out that was a complete national census of A/V equipment in Thai schools, with a 98% response rate.

I went with my Thai counterpart to thank the ladies at the Census Office. I told them how impressed I was.

‘I have just one favour to ask of you’, said the Director. ‘We have an agreement with IBM that all our use of the equipment must be approved by the IBM counterpart director.’

‘But it’s been done already.’

‘Yes, but if we had asked first, he might not have approved. It’s a mere formality, but do you mind?’

‘Of course not.’

So I’m escorted to a very large corner office at the top of the building with a magnificent view over Bangkok, and behind an enormous, empty desk is an American IBM consultant. I told him what I wanted to do (and not that it had already been done).

‘Have you ever designed a questionnaire before?’ he asked. I told him that I regularly surveyed 20,000 students a year at the British Open University.

‘Well, OK, but I doubt if these people here can manage it, ‘ he said, to the Thai Director and myself, ‘ but if you want to give it a try, and they can fit it into their schedule, and you’re willing to manage it, then it’s OK with me.’ He continued in this vein for some time, criticizing the competence of the Thai staff.

When we got back to the Thai Director’s office, I exploded. ‘Why do you have to go through that arrogant son of a…..?’

‘Well,’ she said, ‘It is a small price to pay for such a valuable gift.’

This UNESCO project turned out to be very successful. The radio network was built and in 1978 Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University was officially established, building on the work that had been done to establish the radio network. STOU now has over 170,000 students. Foreign aid was important and helpful, maybe necessary even, but certainly not sufficient. The successful use of educational technology, at least in this instance, is nearly all due to the efforts of the Thais themselves.

Why is this significant?

Let me start with a quote from a recent column in the New York Times by Thomas Friedman:

Nothing has more potential [than the budding revolution in global online higher education] to lift more people out of poverty — by providing them an affordable education to get a job or improve in the job they have. ….And nothing has more potential to enable us to reimagine higher education than the massive open online course, or MOOC, platforms that are being developed by the likes of Stanford and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and companies like Coursera and Udacity…..For relatively little money, the U.S. could rent space in an Egyptian village, install two dozen computers and high-speed satellite Internet access, hire a local teacher as a facilitator, and invite in any Egyptian who wanted to take online courses with the best professors in the world, subtitled in Arabic.

However, equally breathless statements in the past have been made about radio (in 1930s), television (in 1960s), and satellite broadcasting (in 1980s). Delivery is not the issue. We have, and have had, the technological means to deliver educational content of the highest academic quality in terms of its source, the elite universities, into the poorest countries in the world, for over 70 years. Indeed, I have worked on projects for all these technologies – and in online learning – in developing countries, but still the problem of billions of people with insufficient education has not gone away. Using the same arguments as Friedman, radio would reach many more millions than online education as most poor people do have a radio, which can now be operated even without batteries or grid electricity. But that wouldn’t be sexy.

Before we make the same mistakes with MOOCs or other forms of online learning, we need to learn from past experience. For instance, I recently completed a contract for a Mexican university network that wanted to develop a national online university aimed at the lower economic groups in Mexico (what socio-economists describe as groups C- and D). These in terms of numbers are the largest socio-economic groups in Mexico, constituting well over half of the population. The problem was, none of them have Internet access in the home – none, because of income inequality and a virtual monopoly of telecommunications services resulting in very high cost Internet access. MOOCs will not reach these groups, at least for another five to ten years, and Mexico is by no means one of the poorest countries in the world.

If Friedman had done a little math, and calculated the multiplying costs of providing computers all over Egypt, providing security so the computers would not get stolen (as happened with many of the TVs used in the Indian satellite project in the 1980s), the telecommunications costs, and above all the costs of hiring the facilitators, you would have to ask whether the Egyptians would not be better off using this money for more elementary schools and teachers, in terms of return on investment. This is a particularly pertinent point, given that the USA has some of the worst public schooling in the OECD, in terms of student performance. Maybe what the U.S. needs is better schools and fewer MOOCs. But then, I wouldn’t presume to tell Americans what they should do.

Seven lessons for online learning in developing countries

I am not arguing that online learning, or even MOOCs, have no value in developing countries. They do, and we have seen that for instance in Africa online learning is developing at a faster rate than anywhere else. However, there are certain conditions needed for online learning to succeed.

1. Education is socially and culturally based. Online learning developments need to be planned, developed, and managed locally (i.e. nationally or regionally). Only local people understand the local contexts in which online learning will have to work.

2. Online learning may not be the immediate priority for national or international funding: adequate electricity, Internet access, and teacher training are usually necessary pre-requisites for online learning (even or especially if foreign content is to be used).

3. Learners need low-cost, convenient access to computers (or mobile phones) and the Internet in a safe and secure environment that facilitates study. That condition still cannot be met for billions of people, but is improving rapidly every day. Thus timing is critical.

4. Content, and even the technology, are usually the smallest cost components. Learner support (i.e. teachers or facilitators) is often necessary for successful learning, even or especially when technology is used for delivery, and learner support is usually the most costly part of the system.

5. Learners need qualifications that are recognized in their own country and help them get better jobs. Trust is an essential component, and certificates that are offered by foreign institutions to MOOC students but are not recognized for admission to or credit in their own institutions are bogus and fraudulent. However, local vetting of qualifications from foreign online providers is costly and diverts some of the most highly skilled local faculty from other responsibilities.

6. Online learning, foreign expertise and even foreign content in the form of MOOCs and open educational resources can help, but the conditions must be right, and the conditions are always demanding.

7. There is no silver bullet. Simplistic solutions stem from a lack of understanding of what the problem really is.

Now for your comments

I’d really like to hear from two groups:

  1. those of you in less economically advanced countries who have had experience of international development projects in educational technologies, and especially in online learning: what worked and what didn’t? Do you agree with Friedman that MOOCs are the answer?
  2. those of you who have worked as foreign consultants or foreign staff on international development projects in educational technologies, and especially in online learning: what worked and what didn’t?  Do you agree with Friedman that MOOCs are the answer?

Further reading

There is a huge amount of literature on the use of educational technology and mass media for education in developing countries. Most of it is still relevant today to online learning. Some of the best work was done for UNESCO by Dean Jamison, Stephen Wells and Stephen Kleese, ironically at Stanford University. It’s a pity their work seems to have been forgotten by their successors. Emile McAnany, of the University of Texas in Austin was another  excellent evaluator of radio in developing countries. Perhaps the best work of all though was done by Wilbur Schramm, from the East-West Centre at the University of Hawaii. Here is a very selected list of further reading.

Arnove, R. (1976) Educational Television: A Policy Critique and Guide for Developing Countries New York: Praeger

Bates, A. (1985) Broadcasting in Education: An Evaluation London: Constables

Bates, T. (2002) National Strategies for E-Learning in Post-Secondary Education and Training Paris: International Institue for Educational Planning

Carpenter, C. (1972) ‘Television or something else’ in Schramm, W. (ed.) Quality in Instructional Television Honolulu: University Press of Hawaii.

Jamison, D., Klees, S. & Wells, S. (1978). The Costs of Educational Media: Guidelines for Planning and Evaluation. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications

Jamison, D. and McAnany, E. (1978) Radio for Education and Development Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications

Schramm, W. (1975) Big Media, Little Media Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications (for Schramm, big media were television and computer-assisted learning and little media were radio and print)

 

Online learning in 2012: a retrospective

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© The Greening of Gavin, 2012

Well, 2012 was certainly the year of the MOOC. Audrey Watters provides a comprehensive overview of what happened with MOOCs in 2012, so I won’t repeat what she has done. Instead in this post I will focus mainly on trying to explain with regards to MOOCs what appears to me to be highly irrational organizational behaviour, more akin to lemmings than pillars of higher learning.

Why MOOCs?

For those of us who work mainly in universities and colleges, the hype around MOOCs is like living in two parallel universes: what we do every day in online learning, and what we read or hear about in the media. (I leave you to judge which is the true reality.) Even organizations that should know better think that online learning started at MIT in 2002 with OpenCourseWare. So why have MOOCs in particular got so much press?

This is an exercise in social anthropology.

To quote from Wikipedia:

It is unknown why lemming populations fluctuate with such variance roughly every four years, before plummeting to near extinction.

Now some evidence suggests their predators’ populations, particularly the stoat, may be more closely involved in changing the lemming population

Lemmings can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capability to the limit.

 I believe there are several themes that have led to MOOC hysteria in 2012:

  • they appear to be free. The direct costs of higher education, especially but not only in the USA and the UK, have been systematically transferred from the tax payer to the individual student or parents through cuts in government funding and increases in tuition fees. In other words, the cost of higher education has become more transparent. It’s really expensive. Free of course is better than expensive. MOOCs have been promoted as being free. However, there are no free services. All services have a true cost. At least to date, MOOCs are the opposite of transparency on the true cost. We do know that over a hundred million dollars have been invested this year alone in MOOCs, but what are the costs of the professors’ time, the cost of managing large numbers of students, and above all, the cost of ensuring student learning (however it is measured)? We just don’t know. Until we do, it’s a shell game
  • it’s also a numbers game: input matters more than output. The focus of the media has been on the massive numbers enrolling. However, there has been little focus on what students are actually learning. All we know is that completion rates are pathetic (less than 10%), and many of those that do complete are already well educated. Nevertheless it is argued that on a global perspective, the completion numbers are still large. However, so are the numbers in traditional higher education, and also in credit-based online learning. Sloan and Babson have been tracking the online credit numbers for years. They have been growing at a steady rate of between 12-20% a year. Ontario alone has over 500,000 online course registrations in its public universities and colleges, with completion rates in the 75-85%, matching completion rates in face-to-face classes. Millions are taking online courses for credit in Asia. But does this get mass coverage in the media? No.
  • technology triumphs over teaching: MOOCs in general have been driven by computer scientists who believe that just ‘delivering’ content over the Internet equates to learning. It doesn’t, but broadcast content delivery is something that lazy reporters can easily understand.
  • it’s all about the elite institutions. The media love to focus on the ivy league universities to the almost total neglect of the rest of the system (the cult of the superstar). Here is an appalling irony. The top tier research universities have by and large ignored online learning for the last 15 years. Suddenly though when MIT, Stanford and Harvard jump in, all the rest follow like lemmings. MOOCs are seen as an easy, low risk way for these universities not only to catch up, but to jump into the front line. But they are hugely wrong. Moving from broadcasting to learning is not going to be easy. More importantly, MOOCs are a side issue, a distraction. The real change for universities is going to come from hybrid learning – a mix of on-campus and online learning. Those top tier research universities though are going to miss out on this, by sidelining their online learning to a peripheral, continuing education activity.
  • don’t forget the politics: There’s just been a presidential election in the USA. A number of corporate leaders and some in the Republican party want to privatize the US higher education system. Anything that will undermine it is heavily promoted. MOOCs to some extent have been a tool in the hands of the media for suggesting that education need not be expensive and could be ‘free’, or at least much lower cost, if left to business. This fits the agenda of the right.

Having said all this, I believe that there is a future for MOOCs, but that’s for another post, my outlook for 2013, which comes in January.

In the meantime, there were, believe it or not, several other interesting developments in online learning, but before exploring those as well, let’s see how right I was in my outlook for 2012.

What I predicted

  1. The year of the tablet: 99% probability
  2. Learning analytics: 90% probability
  3. Growth of open education: 70% probability (depending on definition of open education)
  4. Disruption of the LMS market: 60% probability
  5. Integration of social media into formal learning: 66% probability
  6. The digital university: 10% probability
  7. Watch India
  8. The great unknown: 10% probability

Well, not a great record at prediction. I suppose you could include MOOCs within ‘growth of open education’. But look at what I actually wrote:

open access to high quality (all right, highly qualified) instructors is likely to be limited to idealistic volunteers, or to limited events (e.g. a MOOC), mainly because of a mis-match between supply and demand. Too many people want access to what they may incorrectly assume to be high quality instructors at elite institutions, for instance. This is partly an institutional barrier, as institutions try to protect their ‘star’ faculty, which is why this form of openness depends largely on individual volunteers.

Not actually wrong, but it certainly didn’t capture the mania that would develop around MOOCs in 2012.

Although there have been lots of interesting individual uses of tablets, particularly in k-12, they certainly haven’t taken off to the extent to which I predicted, at least in post-secondary education. However, so much in prediction depends on timing – maybe it will happen this year. For instance, mobile learning, one of my predictions for 2011, certainly expanded in many institutions in 2012, and will certainly continue to grow in 2013. The use of data analytics definitely increased, but still in a minority of institutions, in 2012, but learning analytics are still being used by a very tiny minority. The technology isn’t quite ready yet. (Again, this depends on definition – I’m talking about the hope that learning analytics will help instructors to achieve better learning outcomes, or put another way, will help students to improve their learning.)

What you read

Another way at looking at 2012 is to see what you chose to read. There are just over 1,800 posts on the site. Here are the top 14 posts in 2012, with the number of hits. (If you missed one, just click on it.)

Recommended graduate programs in e-learning

15,685

What’s right and what’s wrong about Coursera-style MOOCs

7,089

e-learning outlook for 2012: will it be a rough ride?

6,827

New technologies for e-learning in 2012 (and a little beyond)

6,658

A short critique of the Khan Academy

5,026

Can you teach ‘real’ engineering at a distance?

4,988

What Is Distance Education?

4,083

Why learning management systems are not going away

3,624

E-learning quality assurance standards, organizations and research

3,221

A personal view of e-learning in Saudi Arabia

2,844

A student guide to studying online

2,513

10 types of plagiarism (and why I’m pleading guilty to at least one charge)

2,353

Daniel’s comprehensive review of MOOC developments

2,264

Designing online learning for the 21st century

1,929

The numbers of course are skewed by their date of  posting. Those posted early in the year have more chance of being accessed than those posted later. Timing also matters in terms of external events. Despite all the hype about MOOCs, only two of the top 14 posts were specifically on MOOCs (although there were several others posted). I am though surprised at the amount of interest in prediction, especially given how bad I am at it!

The inclusion of ‘Can you teach real engineering at a distance?’ at no. 6 is really interesting. This was posted originally on July 5, 2009, but it has sustained a long discussion that is still active today. I was also pleased to see that designing online learning for the 21st century squeezed in, as this was about design of online learning. I’m glad there’s still at least some interest in this issue. There is also evidence that the site is being used by  a lot of online students (or potential students), which is very gratifying. I need to do more posts targeted to students next year.

What I did

Since I’m not free and open (except here), this is some indication of what institutions were interested in this year (at least enough to pay me for it).

Site visits for consultancies or discussions with faculty/staff on strategies or designs for online learning

  • Mexico City: to develop a business plan for a national Mexican virtual university
  • Edmonton: Campus St-Jean, University of Alberta: informal review of online learning activities
  • Université de Sherbrooke, l’université Laval and Université de Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Québec
  • Vancouver Community College, Kwantlen Polytechnic University, and University of British Columbia, BC
  • University of Manitoba, Winnipeg
  • EFQUEL conference, Granada, Spain
  • COHERE conference, Calgary, Alberta

Online consultancies

MOOCs and Webinars

  • planning and managing online learning: participant in #Change 11 cMOOC
  • costs of online learning: guest instructor for University of Maryland University College/University of Oldenberg, Germany
  • Elections Canada: online course design

Institutional site visits and reports on gamechanging institutions

  • Western Governors University
  • Open University, UK
  • Open University of Catalonia, Spain
  • London Knowledge lab, Institute of Education, London, UK.

It can be seen there was a great deal of interest in:

  • strategies and management,
  • new course designs,
  • design and organization of online institutions,
  • the costs of online learning

during 2012. These issues are not likely to disappear next year, either.

Politics and economics

In 2012, there were major developments in both the politics and economics of online learning. Governments in the USA and Europe accelerated cost cutting in post-secondary education. Nearly one billion dollars has been cut from the community college system in California alone since 2008. Student tuition fees have risen dramatically over the last five years in both the USA and the U.K. Even in Canada, provincial governments are facing the need to constrain public funding.

In Ontario, Canada’s largest province, the government threw down a challenge to the post-secondary institutions. Enrollments will need to increase, quality must be obtained, but there will be no new money. What can the institutions do to increase productivity through innovation? It’s a good question. Business cannot go on as usual. There is surely room for improvement and change in our institutions.

This theme is likely to continue into 2013. Governments, parents and increasingly students will be looking to online learning to increase productivity: better learning outcomes for less money. Are we up to the challenge?

Goodbye, 2012

I asked the question last year: will it be a rough ride? It’s certainly been a fast ride and quite bumpy at the same time. I don’t know how you feel, but I feel I’m hanging on, but only just. It’s good though that it’s exciting, stimulating, infuriating, and frustrating. It means that online learning is alive and well, growing in both breadth and more importantly depth.

So to all my readers, thank you for coming along for the ride. Have a great break, merry Christmas, happy Hanukah, or just have a good time, whatever your religion or beliefs. And I look forward to sharing my outlook for 2013 in the new year.

Questions

1. What pleased, surprised or disappointed you in 2012 with regard to online learning?

2. What do you think was the most important development in 2012 for online learning? Obama’s re-election? MOOCs? New course designs? Or something else?

3. Are we up to the challenge of using online learning to increase productivity through innovation? If so, what would that look like?

Update on investments in online learning: Desire2Learn gets $80 million

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Heussner, K.M. (2012) As ed tech heats up, Desire2Learn raises $80 million in its first VC round, Pentahobigdata.com Gigaom, September 4

A bit of catching up – a blog post I missed in September. Just to update an earlier post, The money pours in to fund online learning start-ups – while the public system starves, Desire2Learn, a fast-growing LMS company based in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, received an injection of $80 million in September from two venture capital companies, New Education Associates (NEA), based in Silicon Valley, but also from OMERS, the investment arm  of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System.

So, to put the record straight, at least one Canadian venture capital company is investing in online learning in Canada. NEA is an investor in Coursera also.

With the new funding, Desire2Learn plans to accelerate global expansion and research and development, including learning analytics.

The money pours in to fund online learning start-ups – while the public system starves

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Banning, Doresa (2102) Online education start-up Udacity Raises $15 million in funding, CityTownInfo.com, October 26

According to the National Venture Capital Association, a staggering $463 million has already been invested this year by venture capitalists into educational technology companies in the USA.

This year some of the online start-ups that have received venture capital funding are:

  • Udacity: $15 million this week; total: $21 million
  • Coursera: $16 million in April
  • 2U (formerly 2tor): $26 million in April
  • Codeacademy: $10 million in June.
  • Desire2Learn: $80 million in September (not a start-up, of course, but still a significant online education company. For more information on the investment click here)

At the same time, the California two year college system has undergone nearly $1 billion of cuts since 2008, resulting in a waiting list of 470,000 students who cannot get into classes.

The California State University system meanwhile is outsourcing most of the services for CalState Online to Pearson.

In the forthcoming November elections in California, in order for the governor to increase some state taxes, proposition 30 attempts to get round the infamous proposition 13 in 1978 that outlawed any property tax increases for ever in California, resulting in the state going into effective bankruptcy last year.

Comment

Clearly the USA is in the process of undermining their public state system of education (at all levels) and in effect privatizing education. Frankly, what American’s do in their own bedrooms is none of my business.

My concern though is that in the urge to get  a return on their investment, these privatized, American online companies will start to gnaw away at the funding behind public education systems in countries outside the United States. And as an aside, where the hell are the Canadian venture capitalists? (Still waiting for the Northern Gateway Pipeline, no doubt – so last century).

It is clearly the goal of the xMOOC companies such as Coursera and Udacity to go global with their offerings. This will be necessary to get a return on the capital invested. But where will these revenues come from? In the USA, it is clearly being diverted from the public education system. Will the same begin to happen in Canada or Europe or Africa as U.S. MOOCs spread?

The least we should know are the business models for getting their money back. Whose money will it be?

My summer paranoia: computers will replace teachers in higher education

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I had a strange dream last night. I was in discussion with an editor from a publishing company about the draft of a new book I was writing. As in all dreams it wasn’t clear what was going on in the discussion but then I realised he wanted me to change what I was writing to make the case that computers can replace teachers in higher education. He told me that his CEO and a number of CEOs from other companies all thought this was the right way to go, and were trying to influence the market to accept this. I was so upset that I woke with a start.

Now you could say I shouldn’t drink tequila before going to bed, but this dream was not at all unrealistic in the light of events over the summer.

No, they really ARE trying to get you

Let’s start with xMOOCs and automated marking and peer review to get around the awkward point that one instructor cannot provide adequate feedback to thousands of students. No problem: a combination of big data collection and analysis and multiple-choice testing will solve most problems, and the ones that it won’t solve will be solved by dumb students marking less dumb students.

Then there’s the Republican Party of Texas whose election platform contains the following (p. 12):

Knowledge-Based Education – We oppose the teaching of Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS) (values clarification), critical thinking skills and similar programs that are simply a relabeling of Outcome-Based Education (OBE) (mastery learning) which focus on behavior modification, and have the purpose of challenging the student’s fixed beliefs and undermining parental authority.

(It also reads as if they oppose clarity in sentence construction, but that’s another matter.) However, if you can’t teach critical thinking skills through automated computer-based teaching, get rid of the requirement for critical thinking. Brilliant!

This was followed by the California State University system deciding to outsource online learning to a commercial publisher.

Then it turns out that the California two year college system has undergone nearly $1 billion of cuts since 2008, resulting in a waiting list of 470,000 students who cannot get into classes. Talk about creating demand for automated courses.

Still in California (do they have too much sun there?) Stanford University has just created a new Vice-Provost for Online Learning, who turns out to be a computer scientist (as are all the people heading up Coursera and Harvard/MIT’s EdX). Who needs someone with expertise in teaching for positions like this?

Lastly, in Canuckistan, the Ontario government is looking for more ‘productivity’ from the post-secondary institutions, and is asking how online learning can lead to improved productivity. In this case, that’s a good question; it’s the answers people may come up with that scare me.

Do we really need teachers in post-secondary education?

At least these developments are forcing an examination of something that most of us have taken for granted – so let’s examine it.

Here we need to look carefully at the language we use. One thing that struck me when I emigrated to North America nearly 25 years ago was that in Britain, those that delivered teaching in universities and colleges were called lecturers or professors. In North America they are called instructors. Obviously, lecturers lecture, professors profess and instructors instruct. But we talk about university or college ‘teaching’.

Now having a background in primary school (k-7) teaching, I always associated ‘instruction’ with a didactic form of teaching, where the instructor determines what content will be learned, delivers information, and the student gobbles it up and is tested on how well he or she has ‘understood’ and ‘remembered.’ This may be a fair description of a lot of post-secondary education, but in my mind it isn’t and never was ‘teaching’. To develop critical thinking skills, professors did more than lecture: they discussed and talked with students, marked assignments and gave detailed feedback. The tried to help learners learn. In other words, they taught.

Yes, this was possible 50 years ago because we had an elite system, and few students per professor. Now we have, especially in North American Tier 1 public research universities, very large classes and many students per professor (made worse in first and second year by tenured professors focusing mainly on research and graduate education). So we have fallen back almost completely on ‘instruction’ rather than on ‘teaching’ in undergraduate programs. But, given the demands of a knowledge-based society, what we need is less instruction, more teaching, and in particular a different quality of student learning.

Instruction is easier to automate than teaching

If the focus is on a didactic model of instruction, then it does become easier to automate. Choose the ‘best’, i.e. most knowledgeable, professor in the field, record their lectures, and set multiple-choice computer tests and assessment, with automated feedback, and bingo, you can teach millions with the same teacher. If you knew nothing about education, like the Republicans in Texas, this would be an ideal way of avoiding grown-up things like paying taxes or tuition fees. As they say, if you can be replaced by a computer, you should be.

However, whether this will produce graduates with the skills and knowledge needed in a knowledge-based society is another matter.

What computers find difficult in teaching

Let’s define productivity in educational terms: it’s achieving the same or better quality outcome in learning at less cost. By definition, it means doing things differently (sometimes called innovation). If we want better quality outcomes then we also need to define outcomes. I put high value on, yes, critical thinking skills, evidence-based decision-making, independent thinking, self-management of learning, responsibility, and ethics.

To successfully achieve such learning outcomes, learners either have to be incredibly self-motivated and already highly knowledgeable (i.e. already well educated), or they need an environment that supports the development not just of these outcomes, but also the development of their thinking and decision-making. This requires fostering or supporting their motivation to learn, dealing with gaps in knowledge or lack of learning skills, providing timely feedback, and above all providing guidance, criteria and direction to ensure that they meet the necessary standards to operate effectively in the real world. This is what I call teaching, and much if not all of it is difficult or impossible to automate.

It should be remembered that a very behaviourist form of computer-based learning, called ‘programmed learning’, existed before the Internet. For over 30 years computer scientists, working in the field of artificial intelligence, have been trying since then to improve on ‘programmed learning’, which failed to deal adequately with the development of cognitive thinking skills beyond the level of comprehension and memory. Despite substantial research investment over many years, AI has proved to be less than successful in the teaching domain. It is very hard to replicate the complexity of a skilled teacher who has to deal with many different variables and factors in real time. It is not just about processing speed and data management, but also about building relationships with students, making intuitive judgments, and being able to handle qualitative issues such as beliefs, values, and the personal feelings of students. Computers are not good at this (and nor are many ‘instructors’, to be fair.)

I first became excited in online learning in the late 1980s, when the Internet was being developed, because it offered the possibility of communication at a distance, a problem that was not well managed in distance education at that time. Thus the computer was not replacing the teacher, but providing teachers with tools they could use to teach even students who were remote. In the early days of the Internet, online teaching was called deliberately ‘computer-mediated communication’ or CMC, to distinguish it from programmed learning. Now the computer scientists in xMOOCs are trying to drive us back to programmed learning.

Online learning can improve productivity, but not through automation (and it ain’t going to be easy)

It’s no good cutting costs if you don’t get the desired outcome. The best example is the construction industry. Cheap construction often has expensive consequences. So we have to be sure that if we are seeking increased productivity, the outcomes are at least as good, if not better, than before the intervention.

The main ways that online learning can improve productivity are as follows:

  • using online learning, rather than building new campuses or physical facilities, to expand access. This option has a fairly narrow range. There has to be enough existing facilities already in place, and the increase in enrollments will need to be accompanied by changes in delivery, with a move to hybrid or fully distance learning in some courses or programs to free up facilities for the new students. This requires some fairly sophisticated juggling of classes, redesigning courses, and careful planning for it to work. It also assumes that numbers in post-secondary education need to increase;
  • use of shared materials, and not just open educational resources, but developing courses or programs that can be used across several institutions. However, course development constitutes only about 15-20% of online teaching costs. The big cost remains delivery.
  • economies in the delivery of programs by maintaining content quality through the use of tenured or research professors for the design and development and monitoring of course delivery, but reducing delivery costs through the use of well-trained online adjunct professors and automated marking where appropriate. Again, this requires some investment, particularly in training, that will to some extent offset the lower cost of adjuncts
  • course designs that move the work away from the instructor to the student. Examples are collaborative learning, development of self-management learning skills, problem-based learning. Even here, though, instructor presence is essential for success.

All these activities to increase productivity without losing quality require careful planning and quite a lot of training. We are not helped by a total lack of research into the costs of various modes of delivery, which means we have poor or no data as a foundation for such changes. Nevertheless, redesign of teaching and a strategic approach to online learning could lead to savings of up to 10% on the present system without a loss of quality. But there’s no silver bullet if we are to get the kinds of graduates we need in a knowledge-based society, and good teachers (as distinct from instructors) will remain critical for success.

And with the return of real students and real ‘instructors’ next week (at least in Canada), maybe reality will return and my nightmares will go away.

Questions

1. Anyone else share my paranoia? (about computers replacing computers – anything else, see a doctor)

2. Do you believe we should replace teachers (or instructors) with computers? What are your reasons?

3. Can online learning improve productivity in post-secondary education without getting rid of most instructors?

4. Can you recommend a good doctor?